India's economy is likely to grow by 6.5 per cent in the current and the next financial year, an EY report said, attributing lower than anticipated expansion in the September quarter to fall in private consumption expenditure and gross fixed capital formation. Real GDP growth eased to a seven-quarter low of 5.4 per cent in July-September -- the second quarter of the current 2024-25 fiscal year.
Deficit is likely to touch $60 bn this financial year from $40 bn in the previous one.
'The Budget must be pro-growth, focusing on infrastructure creation while also managing the fiscal deficit.'
Aiming at reducing the trade deficit between them, India and Vietnam are gearing up to double the value of two-way trade in the next three years.
Releasing its grim forecast for the current year, WTO economists warned about several downside risks as well as rising inflationary pressures because of the increase in commodity prices and lax monetary conditions. "The continued turmoil in financial markets and the downside risks, including inflationary tendencies, are a cause for concern," said Patrick Low, chief economist, WTO.
The government is worried the trade gap could worsen again and the currency could weaken as the US Federal Reserve looks set to start tapering its economic stimulus soon.
Trump is demanding China to reduce the $375 billion trade deficit and protection of Intellectual Property Rights, technology transfer and more access to American goods to Chinese markets.
India should become a middle-income country and then push to make INR (rupee) a hard currency, and till then, it must promote the settlement of global trade in the local currency, think tank GTRI said on Sunday. Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said that transforming a currency into a hard currency is a complex process that hinges on several pivotal factors. Firstly, economic stability is paramount; a country must exhibit low and stable inflation, consistent growth, and a balanced trade environment.
The State Department said as India's number one overseas market, the US purchases close to one-fifth of its exports. India is also the fastest growing major market for American goods.
Since Sanjay Malhotra took office as governor in December, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adopted a more accommodative stance, which bodes well for banking and the economy as they navigate a growth slowdown, according to analysts.
Indian stock markets are expected to be driven mostly by global factors this week amid a lack of local triggers and earnings season largely coming to an end, say analysts. Crude oil prices, rupee movement and US Federal Reserve meeting minutes to be released this week will also influence the market sentiment. "With the earnings season behind us, global cues would largely dictate the trend in the coming week," Ajit Mishra, SVP - technical research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.
The banking system's liquidity slipped into deficit for the first time in the current financial year (2023-24) due to the imposition of the Incremental Cash Reserve Ratio (I-CRR) for banks and outflows from goods and services tax (GST) payments, according to dealers. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data shows it injected Rs 23,644 crore on August 21. The last time liquidity was in deficit was on March 27, when the RBI injected Rs 45,575 crore.
The Wall Street major Morgan Stanley has upgraded India to "standout overweight" citing that the relative economic and earnings growth is improving and the macro-stability setup looks sufficient to withstand the higher real rate environment. "India remains standout overweight. "We increase our overweight stance on Indian equities and as our most-preferred emerging market," the brokerage said in a note on Friday.
'Retail investors have to stick to their asset allocation plans and continuously do portfolio reviews.'
Improved monsoon, solid fiscal performance, and capex push by the public and private sectors augurs well for India's macroeconomic stability and growth, the finance ministry's monthly economic review for June 2023 said. But the report said that while India's domestic fundamentals remain strong, negative cross-border spillovers and adverse global developments could act as a deterrent in achieving the high growth path this financial year. "An improved matching of aggregate supply and aggregate demand in the Indian economy underpins the progress made in the control of domestic inflation and the consequent strengthening of macroeconomic stability," the review said.
Imports too declined by 12.71 per cent to $38.11 billion in November, narrowing the trade deficit to $12.12 billion. Cumulatively, during April-November 2019, exports were down 1.99 per cent to $211.93 billion while imports contracted by 8.91 per cent to $318.78 billion.
India's exports may have touched an all-time high of $422 billion in 2021-22 but recession in key western markets and geo-political crisis due to the Russia-Ukraine war are expected to impact the growth of the country's outbound shipments in 2023. All the global trade promoting factors like political stability, movement of goods, adequate availability of containers and shipping lines, demand, stable currency and smooth banking systems are in disarray. Adding to the woes, COVID cases have again started rising in countries like China, Japan, South Korea and the US.
Of $90 billion remittances that India is expected to receive in 2022, only $27.4 billion has come in the first half of the year.
Forex dealers said strength in euro against the US dollar overseas and increased capital inflows supported the rupee.
India's gold imports, which have a bearing on the country's Current Account Deficit (CAD), rose 6.4 per cent to $12.9 billion during April-July this fiscal due to healthy demand, according to government data. The imports stood at $12 billion during the same period a year ago. In July 2022, however, imports of the precious metal fell sharply by 43.6 per cent to $2.4 billion, as per the latest data released by the commerce ministry.
Biden said America is in a stronger position to win the competition for the 21st Century against China.
Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal on Monday said the existing foreign trade policy (FTP) will be extended for six months till March 31 next year. The government had earlier extended the FTP 2015-20 until September 30 this year due to the Covid-19 crisis. The FTP provides guidelines for enhancing exports to push economic growth and create jobs.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) outstanding net forward purchases of US dollars fell by more than 50 per cent from the last quarter of FY22 to $30.86 billion in the June quarter (Q1). The net forwards position was at $65.79 billion at the end of the last fiscal year. The purchases fell by $18.33 billion in June as the central bank intervened in both the forwards and the spot market in order to protect the rupee from excessive depreciation in the face of a widening trade deficit.
Investor sentiment remained upbeat on narrowing trade deficit and sustained foreign fund inflows.
India's gold imports, which have a bearing on the country's current account deficit (CAD), rose by 33.34 per cent to $46.14 billion during the 2021-22 fiscal on account of higher demand, according to official data. Gold imports were worth $34.62 billion in 2020-21. The surge in gold imports during the last financial year contributed to the widening of the trade deficit to $192.41 billion, against $102.62 billion in 2020-21.
Indian exports rebounded last year after declining by 3.5 per cent in the previous year in keeping with changes in global trade patterns. Global exports grew by 12.4 per cent (by volume) in 2010 after falling by 10.9 per cent in the previous year (2009).
Captain Arjun Deshwal led from the front as Jaipur Pink Panthers thrashed Telugu Titans 52-22 in a Pro Kabaddi League match in Hyderabad on Tuesday.
The trade gap was $11.66 billion in December 2015 while in September 2015 it stood at $10.16 billion
The World Bank on Tuesday raised the growth forecast for the Indian economy to 7 per cent for the current fiscal year on the back of recovery in agri sector and rural demand. World Bank had in June projected India to grow at 6.6 per cent for FY24. According to the World Bank Report released on Tuesday, India's growth continues to be strong despite a challenging global environment.
The China threat continues to resonate in the strategic partnership between India and the USA, points out Rup Narayan Das.
Addressing the 'Namaste Trump' event at the Motera Stadium in Ahmedabad, Trump said that both the countries are in the early stages of discussion for an 'incredible' trade agreement to reduce barriers of investments.
Trade deficit during the month narrowed to $17.4 billion as against $12.72 billion in the same month last year
The Tata Group is one of the very few Indian MNCs which has carved out a niche in China's highly competitive market, notes Rup Narayan Das.
It was a protest which held a mirror to the government of a state taking pride in its commitment to democracy, gender equality and social indices.One person, who in his employed days had known governments and political parties at close quarters, told me that public perception of how the Kerala government handled the ASHA workers' strike had been terrible, reports Shyam G Menon.
India's imports from Russia rose 64 per cent to $36.27 billion during the April-October period this fiscal on higher shipments of crude oil and fertiliser, according to the commerce ministry data. With this, Russia has become India's second-largest import source during the first seven months of this fiscal. The imports were $22.13 billion during April-October 2022.
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday said the economy is expected to grow at 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal notwithstanding deficient rains in August. India recorded economic growth of 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2023-24 against 13.1 per cent in the year-ago period. India's economy in Q1 grew at the fastest pace in a year, on the shoulders of a boost in capital expenditure both at central and state levels, along with stronger consumption demand, especially in rural areas, and improved performance in the services sector, he said.
Shrachi Rarh Bengal Tigers emerged victorious in the men's Hockey India League, securing the title with a thrilling 4-3 win over Hyderabad Toofans in the summit clash.
Growing for the third consecutive month, the country's exports rose marginally by 0.67 per cent year-on-year to $27.93 billion in February even as trade deficit widened to $12.62 billion, according to official data released on Monday.
The declining trade deficit figures clearly reflect that the US exports to India are increasing.
To find out opportunities for Malaysian companies and increase trade with Gujarat, Consul General in India, Mohamed Hatimi Abas and Vice Consul Omar Salleh today visited a trade exhibition at Gujarat University Convention centre.
